Temperature trends and projections

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Temperature trends and projections. Using the IS92 emission scenarios, projected global mean temperature changes relative to 1990 were calculated up to 2100. Climate models calculate that the global mean surface temperature could rise by about 1 to 4.5 centigrade by 2100. The topmost curve is for IS92e, assuming constant aerosol concentrations beyond 1990 and high climate sensitivity of 4.5 °C. The lowest curve is for IS92c and assumes constant aerosol concentrations beyond 1990 and a low climate sensitivity of 1.5 °C. The two middle curves show the results for IS92a with 'best estimate' of climate sensitivity of 2.5 °C: the upper curve assumes a constant aerosol concentration beyond 1990, and the lower one includes changes in aerosol concentration beyond 1990. (It is assumed that the Greenhouse effect is reduced with increased aerosols.)

Sources

Temperature 1858 - 1999: Climatic Research Unit, University at East ANglia, Norwich UK; Projections: IPCC report 95

Link to web-site

http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/climate/page/3076.aspx

Cartographer/
Designer

Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal

Appears in

Vital Climate Graphics

Published

1999

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