Arctic temperatures in the 20th century, modeled and observed

Arctic temperatures in the 20th century, modeled and observed (map/graphic/illustration)

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Arctic temperatures in the 20th century, modeled and observed. Observed Arctic winter land temperatures and IPCC model recreations for the 20th century. Note that although these model runs are able to capture the range of Arctic warm and cold periods, the timing of the peaks varies, suggesting that the early 20th century warming was due to random causes, while the increases at the end of the century shown by all the models supports CO2 as an external forcing of the Arctic climate system.
Sources Wang, M., Overland, J.E., Kattsov, V., Walsh, J.E., Zhang, X. and Pavlova, T. (2007). Intrinsic versus forced variation in coupled climate model simulations over the Arctic during the 20th century. J. Climate, 20(6), 1093-1107
Link to web-site http://www.unep.org/geo/ice_snow
Cartographer/
Designer
Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Appears in Global Outlook for Ice and Snow
Published June 2007
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