The Environmental Food Crisis - The Environment's Role in Averting Future Food Crises

Publisher: UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) CBD (Convention on Biological Diversity), SBSTTA (Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical and Technological Advice, Publication date: 2009 , Published in series: Rapid Response Assessment
A new rapid response assessment report released by UNEP warns that up to 25% of the world’s food production may become lost due to environmental breakdown by 2050 unless action is taken. Prepared by the Rapid Response Assessment Team at UNEP/GRID-Arendal and UNEP-WCMC, the report provides the first summary by the UN of how climate change, water stress, invasive pests and land degradation may impact world food security, food prices and life on the planet and how we may be able to feed the world in a more sustainable manner. The report concludes that we need to get smart and more creative about recycling food wastes and fish discards into animal feed. While major efforts have gone into increasing efficiency in the traditional energy sector, food energy efficiency has received too little attention.

See the The Environmental Food Crisis - The Environment's Role in Averting Future Food Crises web-site for full details.

A photographic impression of the gradual changes in two ecosystem types

Globally, over 1,000 (87%) of a total of 1,226 threatened bird species are impacted by agriculture. More than 70 species are affected by agricultural pollution, 27 of them seriously. Europe’s [..]
A photographic impression of the gradual changes in two ecosystem types

Agricultural production increases, per commodity 1965-2008

The use of fertilizers accounts for approximately 50% of the yield increase, and greater irrigation for another substantial part (FAO, 2003). Current FAO projections in food demand suggest that [..]
Agricultural production increases, per commodity 1965-2008

Agricultural trends, production, fertilisers, irrigation and pesticides

Figure 8: Global trends (1960–2005) in cereal and meat production, use of fertilizer, irrigation and pesticides. (Source: Tilman, 2002; FAO, 2003; International Fertilizer Association, 2008; FAOSTAT, [..]
Agricultural trends, production, fertilisers, irrigation and pesticides

An increasing number of countries are leasing land abroad to sustain and secure their food production

The world regions are sharply divided in terms of their capacity to use science in promoting agricultural productivity in order to achieve food security and reduce poverty and hunger. For every [..]
An increasing number of countries are leasing land abroad to sustain and secure their food production

Biofuels production 1975-2005 (ethanol and biodiesel)

Biofuels have grown quickly in demand and production (Figure 14), fuelled by high oil prices and the initial perception of their role in reducing CO2 emissions (FAO, 2008). Biofuels, including [..]
Biofuels production 1975-2005 (ethanol and biodiesel)

Biofuels production 2005, by country (ethanol and biodiesel)

Production of crops for biofuels also competes with food production (Banse et al., 2008). Indeed, the corn equivalent of the energy used on a few minutes drive could feed a person for a day, while [..]
Biofuels production 2005, by country (ethanol and biodiesel)

Country income groups (World Bank classification)

There are huge regional differences in the above trends. Globally, poverty rates have fallen from 52% in 1981 to 42% in 1990 and to 26% in 2005. In Sub-Saharan Africa, however, the poverty rate [..]
Country income groups (World Bank classification)

Crushed by war and world conflicts

Conflicts increase the risk of food supply instability tremendously (Figure 31). Countries in conflict and post-conflict situations tend to be food insecure, with more than 20% of the population, [..]
Crushed by war and world conflicts

Dietary change in developing countries, 1964-2030

As nearly half of the world’s cereal production is used to produce animal feed, the dietary proportion of meat has a major influence on global food demand (Keyzer et al., 2005). With meat [..]
Dietary change in developing countries, 1964-2030

FAO Commodity Price Indices

Although production has generally increased, the rising prices coincided with extreme weather events in several major cereal producing countries, which resulted in a depletion of cereal stocks. The [..]
FAO Commodity Price Indices

FAO Food price index (FFPI)

The current world food crisis is the result of the combined effects of competition for cropland from the growth in biofuels, low cereal stocks, high oil prices, speculation in food markets and [..]
FAO Food price index (FFPI)

Food consumption – trends and projections

Increase in crop production has mainly been a function of increases in yield due to increased irrigation and fertilizer use. However, this may change in the future towards more reliance on cropland [..]
Food consumption – trends and projections

Food lost

Food losses in the field (between planting and harvesting) could be as high as 20–40% of the potential harvest in developing countries due to pests and pathogens (Kader, 2005). Postharvest losses [..]
Food lost

Losses in the food chain – from field to household consumption

i.e., before conversion of food to feed. After discounting the losses, conversions and wastage at the various stages, roughly 2,800 kcal are available for supply (mixture of animal and vegetal [..]
Losses in the food chain – from field to household consumption

Many of the largest rivers in the Himalayas Hindu Kush region are strongly dependent upon snow and glacial melt for waterflow

Except for the fact that glaciers are melting rapidly in many places, we do not have adequate data to more accurately project when and where water scarcity will affect irrigation schemes in full. [..]
Many of the largest rivers in the Himalayas Hindu Kush region are strongly dependent upon snow and glacial melt for waterflow

Market access (estimated travel time) in agricultural areas

Accessibility to food is also determined by the long-term trend in food prices (which is a different issue from price volatility). The rising trend in global food prices is likely to persist in the [..]
Market access (estimated travel time) in agricultural areas

Possible individual ranges of yield and cropland area losses by 2050

Figure 24: Possible individual ranges of yield and cropland area losses by 2050 with climate change (A2 scenario), non-food crops incl. biofuels (six OECD scenarios), land degradation (on yield and [..]
Possible individual ranges of yield and cropland area losses by 2050

Potential for cropland expansion

Current projections suggest that an additional 120 million ha – an area twice the size of France or one-third that of India – will be needed to support the traditional growth in food production by [..]
Potential for cropland expansion

Projected agriculture in 2080 due to climate change

With our climate changes, we have to adapt our ways to a new environment – in most cases warmer and possibly wetter and drier. Projections on the climate in the future provide some guidance for us, [..]
Projected agriculture in 2080 due to climate change

Projected changes in cereal productivity in Africa, due to climate change – current climate to 2080

Water is essential not only to survival but is also equally or even more important than nutrients in food production. Agriculture accounts for nearly 70% of the water consumption, with some [..]
Projected changes in cereal productivity in Africa, due to climate change – current climate to 2080

Projected impacts of climate change

Global climate change may impact food production across a range of pathways (Figure 17): 1) By changing overall growing conditions (general rainfall distribution, temperature regime and carbon); 2) [..]
Projected impacts of climate change

Projected land use changes

A central component in preventing loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services, such as provisioning of water, from expanding agricultural production is to limit the trade-off between economic [..]
Projected land use changes

Selected drought events in Africa, 1981-1999, and livestock impacts

Water scarcity in terms of drought or depleted groundwater could therefore have great impacts on livestock and rangelands. These interactions are also complex. While drought can directly threaten [..]
Selected drought events in Africa, 1981-1999, and livestock impacts

Supermarket share of retail food sales

Large urban markets create the scope for the establishment of big supermarket chains, with implications for the entire food supply chain. In 2002, the share of supermarkets in the processed/packaged [..]
Supermarket share of retail food sales

Trends in food commodity prices, compared to trends in crude oil prices (indices)

The impacts of reduced food availability, higher food prices and thus lower access to food by many people have been dramatic. It is estimated that in 2008 at least 110 million people have been [..]
Trends in food commodity prices, compared to trends in crude oil prices (indices)

Trends in Food prices

FAO Food Price Index
Trends in Food prices

Trends in mean depth of fish catches

Food losses in the field (between planting and harvesting) could be as high as 20–40% of the potential harvest in developing countries due to pests and pathogens (Kader, 2005). Postharvest losses [..]
Trends in mean depth of fish catches

Trends in population, developed and developing countries, 1750-2050 (estimates and projections)

Each day 200,000 more people are added to the world food demand. The world’s human population has increased near fourfold in the past 100 years (UN population Division, 2007); it is projected to [..]
Trends in population, developed and developing countries, 1750-2050 (estimates and projections)

Trends in productivity 1981-2003 (greening and land degradation)

Unsustainable practices in irrigation and production may lead to increased salinization of soil, nutrient depletion and erosion. An estimated 950 million ha of salt-affected lands occur in arid and [..]
Trends in productivity 1981-2003 (greening and land degradation)

Trends in urban and rural populations, less developed regions, 1960-2030 (estimates and projections)

According to the latest UN estimates, almost all of the world’s population growth between 2000 and 2030 will be concentrated in urban areas in developing countries (Figure 32). By 2030, almost 60% [..]
Trends in urban and rural populations, less developed regions, 1960-2030 (estimates and projections)

Trends in world agricultural exports

The availability of food within a specific country can be guaranteed in two ways: Either by food production in the country itself or by trade. The first option has been discussed extensively in the [..]
Trends in world agricultural exports

Water requirements for food production 1960-2050

The requirements for water in agriculture will need to increase in order to meet the Millennium Development Goal 1, target 2 'Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from [..]
Water requirements for food production 1960-2050

World capture fisheries and aquaculture production

Current projections for aquaculture suggest that previous growth is unlikely to be sustained in the future as a result of limits to the availability of wild marine fish for aquaculture feed (FAO, [..]
World capture fisheries and aquaculture production